Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida, Most Negative Primary Campaign in History-- A Li-Mitted Victory for the Presumptive GOP Nominee

I find it amusing that the Romney camp is already warning of vitriolic attacks from the White House after having carpet bombed Newt, outspending him 5-1 and airing 60-1 ads against him.

The Campaign Media Analysis Group found the Romney campaign set a new record of negativity against a particular candidate, Newt.  Neither the candidate nor his campaign seem to have the serious capacity to look themselves in the mirror, except to admire themselves. Even Newt's ads were more positive than Romney's.

Perhaps, the belief that the White House will be equally negative, has something to do with these folks belief in Karma. In any event, this short piece with illustration by David Horsey in the LA Times does a good job of filling people in about the results of yesterday's primary in Florida. As Horsey observes:

"What is the point of Romney's candidacy? Beyond patriotic bromides and the usual vague conservative rhetoric about lower taxes and unleashed capitalism, Romney has not articulated a purpose for his prospective presidency. Gingrich, at least, has some explicit plans for what he'd do in the Oval Office, however grandiose some of them may be.
Romney's biggest weakness throughout the campaign has been that most voters perceive a hollowness in his message and hold a huge measure of doubt about what he truly believes. "

Mitt Romney attack machine wins Florida primary
David Horsey / Los Angeles Times



Mitt Romney won the Florida Republican presidential primary in the nastiest way.
From the beginning of the year to primary election day, the Romney campaign and super PACs allied with Romney paid millions of dollars for 12,768 television ads. According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, 99% of them were attacks on Newt Gingrich. In the same period, Gingrich and his supporters bought just 210 TV ads. While the majority of them slammed Romney, at least some were positive advertisements for Gingrich.
CMAG concluded that, with 92% of the total TV ads going on the attack, the Florida promary set a new record for negativity.
What does it say about a candidate who wins this way? Did people really vote for Romney or simply against a monster created from distortions, misrepresentations and mendacity?
Here's what Gingrich said about it: "What a pathetic situation to be running for president of the United States with nothing positive to say for yourself and nothing available, a big idea, a big vision, a big future, and all you've got is to tear your opponents down so they get to be smaller than you are."
Of course, as usual, Gigrich's remarks are self-serving. His distortions of Romney's record were equally outlandish and cynical. Still, he raises a salient question about Romney that goes beyond the man's willingness to destroy his opponents by any means. What is the point of Romney's candidacy? Beyond patriotic bromides and the usual vague conservative rhetoric about lower taxes and unleashed capitalism, Romney has not articulated a purpose for his prospective presidency. Gingrich, at least, has some explicit plans for what he'd do in the Oval Office, however grandiose some of them may be.
Romney's biggest weakness throughout the campaign has been that most voters perceive a hollowness in his message and hold a huge measure of doubt about what he truly believes. Just as the other Republican candidates have been vying to be the not-Romney alternative, Romney seems to be running as the not-Obama and not much more.
At least Florida has given us clarity about one thing concerning the man most likely to be the Republican nominee: If he cannot win by swaying our hearts and minds, he'll win by making us fear and loathe whoever stands in his way.


http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-attack-machine-20120131,0,7018080.story

Li-Mitted Appeal: Romney's First Impression is Upside Down
 among the Independent Voters he'll need next Fall
See, "Putting Dollars First":
http://jeff-for-progress.blogspot.com/2012/01/smoking-gun-romney-tax-loophole.html


 Next, Ron Founier in The National Journal, "A Li-Mitted Victory for the Presumptive GOP Nominee,"  January 31, 2012, excerpt below:


...After five weeks of primary and caucus fights, what did voters learn about Romney? On the plus side, he has a successful record as governor of Massachusetts, head of the 2002 Olympic committee, and cofounder of Bain Capital. His stump speech contains a hint of what could be the antidote to President Obama's reelection. "The president's a nice guy, and I know he's trying," Romney says, "but he doesn't understand how the economy works"

Now, stack that against what else voters have heard about Romney: He's a liar and a flip-flopper who will say anything to get elected. He's filthy rich. He likes to fire people. He made his fortune plundering companies and laying off workers. Oh, and don't forget that he buried assets in the Cayman Islands and won't cough up his tax returns. 

Some of these perceptions come courtesy of his fellow Republicans. Others are self-inflicted.

"He has no idea what it's like out here living paycheck to paycheck," said Christine Roberts, a Des Moines, Iowa, housewife who voted for Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama.

She is the type of independent voter who will determine the general election. Roberts, and voters like her, lost faith in Obama early in his presidency and, despite their willingness to vote Republican in November, now harbor doubts about Romney. Doubts that Obama's team are certain to exploit.
 
According to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Romney's negative rating with independents jumped 13 points in the past month and 20 points since November. 
 
Among all voters, 49 percent view him unfavorably, a new high in ABC/Washington Post polling and a 15-point drop in just two weeks. By contrast, 53 percent of voters view Obama favorably, up by 5 points from last month and the highest rating since April 2010. Many more voters say that Obama understands the problems of average Americans than say that about either Romney or Gingrich, the poll shows.
 
Among noncollege white voters--a key to the anti-Obama coalition that Romney hopes to forge--35 percent view his Bain Capital work favorably, versus 38 percent who view it unfavorably, according to ABC/Post.  Among moderates, the numbers are 32 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable.  
 
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Romney's allies do not worry about the words of Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, or other GOP rivals being used in Democratic ads this fall. Gingrich, in particular, is so unpopular with independent voters that they would discount  his views.
 
What they worry about is Romney's so-called negative narrative. "First impressions mean everything in politics, and the first thing most voters are learning about Romney is pretty unappetizing," said a GOP strategist and lobbyist who has helped run a presidential campaign. Like other party officials, he spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering Romney's team...



http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/01/a-limitted-victory-for-presump.php?mrefid=freehplead_1 


On a related note, Romney does not appear to be graceful in victory. Mitt's victories in the debates has also shown an unattractive side of the candidate, his tendency to preen and gloat. Was this what they did at Bain Capital after they scored a kill? See. Maureen Dowd, "Who's Tough Enough," The New York Times, January 31, 2012:

...Like Biden, Mitt Romney’s team has been busy building up the boss. In Florida, they focused intensely on strengthening Mitt’s bendable backbone, coaching him so well on debate fisticuffs that Romney was able to instantly turn his rival back into Crybaby Newt. Mitt learned the age-old lesson: Slap the bully in the face and he runs off mewling.
After the Jacksonville debate, however, Mittens offered an unattractive display of vamping, chortling and gloating about leaving “Goldilocks” Gingrich in a puddle.
In his victory speech Tuesday night, Angry Mitt kept pounding: “Mr. President, you were elected to lead. You chose to follow. And now it’s time for you to get out of the way.”
But as he exits Florida, brushing Newt away and accusing Obama of adopting a strategy “of appeasement and apology,” Romney would do well to remember that real tough guys don’t brag on themselves.
They let others do it.


Romney being graceful in victory or not, Newt no longer seems to be a serious factor, at least for the nomination, due to what's left of the Republican Establishment. See, Margaret Carlson, Bloomberg News, "Old Line Republicans Unite in Gingrich Hatred, January 31, 2012:

By the time a choir sang the national anthem at the Jan. 26 debate in Jacksonville, Florida, Gingrich had been so roughed up by the establishment, and by more than $10 million in negative ads from the Romney campaign and its establishment allies, that he looked as limp as a dishrag. Having delivered more than his share of venom through the years, Gingrich recognized its effects, whimpering that all the nastiness made him “sad.” The night passed without Gingrich mussing a hair on Romney’s head.


Fineman at The Huffington Post thought he heard a threat of Newt running as a Third Party Populist candidate in his concession speech last night. At this point that sounds more plausible than Newt winning the Republican nomination.  Howard Fineman, "Is Newt Threatening to Go Rogue and Leave the Party?,"  The Huffington Post, January 31, 2012:

John C. Breckinridge
Source: Wikipedia
1865–1875 photograph of John C. Breckinridge, attributed to Mathew Brady or Levin Handy. Scanned from original negative and retouched.
14th Vice President of the United States
In office
March 4, 1857 – March 4, 1861
Newt often draws parallels between the 2012 election and that of 1860, if he were to run as a populist, would he have Breckinridge's run, (the Southern Democrat) in mind?  This would make Obama, Lincoln, and Romney, Stephen Douglas. But, this time playing the two Northerners against the South, the South wins?  Newt might consider his term as Speaker equal to Breckinridge's service as Vice President and the idea is novel enough to intrigue him. After all, he wrote a novel about how the South won the Civil War, it would be appealing to him to cast himself as the hero of a real life novel with the same theme.


Finally, an interesting factoid from MSNBC's First Read (they also give some reasons why Newt is still a threat, but I remain to be convinced), as they note the contributors to his Super Pac, "do little to alleviate criticism that Romney is too closely tied to Wall Street and other corporate interests:
*** Romney’s Super PAC rakes in nearly $18 million in six months: NBC’s Michael Isikoff reports that
top Wall Street moguls from big hedge fund and private equity firms -- including principals from Bain Capital -- topped the list of donors that pumped more than $17.9 million into the pro-Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future during the last six months of last year.  But while the filing by Restore Our Future shows its formidable fundraising prowess – considerably more than the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action’s $1.2 million -- it will do little to alleviate criticism that Romney is too closely tied to Wall Street and other corporate interests, Isikoff adds. Restore Our Future collected seven  $1 million donations, including one from Paul Singer, the billionaire and secretive head of the Elliott Management hedge fund, and two others from hedge fund kingpins Julian Robertson of Tiger Management and Robert Mercer of Renaissance Technologies.

Friday, January 27, 2012

For Newt, an Oddly Passive Performance--Fly Me to the Moon-- Reich: No Democrat should want a Gingrich nomination

The debate in Jacksonville was characterized by Newt's oddly passive performance. If there was ever a time to repeat his performances in SC it was now, leaving Newt's supporters and  political strategists scratching their heads. Captured nicely in this article in the Politico. Followed by the lunacy of eating up much of the debate on a discussion of the Moon. Newt's most passionate moment concerned a moon colony.  And Romney's most definitive put down was that he would fire anyone who suggested that we establish a moon colony. Something tells me Romney loved the opportunity to showcase that idea at a time of economic distress for so many Americans.  Not that Mitt's ideas of creative destruction, destroying the wealth of the many for the benefit of the very few, makes any more sense than Newt's. Finally, Reich makes the argument no matter how bad the pair's economic ideas, Romney at least does not absurd undemocratic ideas such as abolishing the independence of the judiciary, although he does have absurd ideas such as corporations are people.

Florida GOP debate: Newt's no-show

Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speak at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, Fla. | AP Photo

By JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEXANDER BURNS | 1/27/12 4:39 AM EST

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Here he goes again.
With Florida and perhaps his presidential hopes in the balance, Newt Gingrich turned in an oddly passive debate performance that left his supporters scratching their heads and illustrated his unpredictable and even whimsical style.

It served as a reminder of the essential trait of the Gingrich campaign: It is entirely dependent on the candidate’s impulse or mood.
And the Gingrich who lit up a pair of moderators last week in South Carolina on his way to a thumping win didn’t show up here Thursday evening.
The former speaker never once portrayed Mitt Romney as a “Massachusetts moderate,” his preferred gibe, or ever even tied his chief rival to the “establishment” Republican voters in this state decisively rejected two years ago. He seemed more consumed with litigating the unfairness of Romney’s attacks against him than driving his own message.
All told, Gingrich’s performance was more a throwback to the last days of his Iowa campaign — a floundering, listless, message-free affair – than an extension of his Palmetto State victory tour.
Again and again over the course of the two-hour CNN debate, Gingrich either soft-pedaled his attacks against Romney or failed to make them altogether. Asked to explain it afterwards, Gingrich backers offered a collective shrug – it wasn’t the performance they needed heading into Tuesday’s primary.
His somnolent showing left other November-minded Republicans with a mix of shock that the famously hard-charging politician would go soft at such a high-stakes moment and relief that he may not be able to capitalize on his South Carolina win.
“Speaker Gingrich showed everyone tonight that he does not have the discipline to run a presidential campaign,” said unaligned GOP strategist Curt Anderson. “He clearly came into this debate with no plan and no strategy to win it. If he had won this debate tonight, he would have won Florida, and pandemonium would have set in within the Republican Party.”
Gingrich whiffed, fouled off or didn’t even swing at one easy pitch after another.
His biggest wind-up of the night came when he told the audience he felt “shock” to learn that Romney has a financial stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – as well as “an investment in Goldman Sachs, which is today foreclosing on Floridians” – even as Romney attacks Gingrich for his ties to the government-backed mortgage industry.
Romney asserted that his investments are in a blind trust, which is actually not true in the case of his Fannie and Freddie stakes.
But Gingrich didn’t challenge the explanation, instead resorting to a sarcastic question about the blind trust: “You didn’t give any instructions to — to say, gee, let’s not do this or let’s not do that?”
That wasn’t even Gingrich’s biggest pulled punch of the night. When CNN’s Wolf Blitzer repeated an attack Gingrich leveled at Romney Wednesday — linking him to “Swiss bank and Cayman Island bank accounts” — the candidate said he’d prefer to “talk about issues that relate to governing America.”
“I’m perfectly happy to say that on an interview on some TV show. But this is a national debate, where you have a chance to get the four of us to talk about a whole range of issues,” Gingrich said, only engaging Romney on his finances half-heartedly and after repeated goading.
He even offered to “have a truce” with Romney when it comes to discussing their “personal activities” — though Gingrich griped that “it would be nice if you had the same standard for other people that you would like applied to you.”
The missed opportunities went on and on.
When the moderator asked him about his relationship with Ronald Reagan – the intimacy of which Romney’s campaign has questioned in recent days – Gingrich offered only a terse defense of his Reagan credentials. And while he noted that Romney had donated to Democratic political candidates, Gingrich let Romney off the hook for having distanced himself from Reagan during his 1994 Senate bid.

“Now, he’s more mature. He’s more conservative. I accept that. I think it’s a good thing,” Gingrich said.
Then he revealed just how much the relentless Romney offensive had gotten in his head.
“Those of us who were in the trenches fighting in the ‘80’s, it would be nice to be recognized for what we actually did and not to have orchestrated attacks to try to distort the history of that period,” carped Gingrich.
Even when the debate drifted into Romney’s area of greatest vulnerability – health care – Gingrich used his answer to deliver a sputtering defense of his own record, rather than to criticize Romney.
“I didn’t advocate federal mandates. I talked about it at a state level,” Gingrich said, responding to a jab from Santorum. “The fact is, it was a personal system, dramatically different than either Romneycare or the version Rick just discussed.”
The most striking missed opportunity, however, came at night’s end when Blitzer asked the candidates why they were best equipped to defeat President Obama and Gingrich talked loftily about a “big choice election” – but didn’t repeat his stump standard about choosing between nominating a bold Reagan conservative and a Massachusetts moderate.
Pressed after the debate why the aggressive, impassioned Gingrich of last week didn’t show up, the former speaker’s supporters seemed at a loss.
“I can’t answer those questions, you’d have to ask him,” said Bill McCollum, Gingrich’s Florida chair, when asked why his candidate wouldn’t highlight his differences with Romney. “You don’t have to confront somebody boom-boom-boom to bring contrast out.”
Former Sen. Fred Thompson, a recent Gingrich endorser, offered the same answer to the same question.
“I don’t know, you’ll have to ask him,” said Thompson, venturing that Gingrich had returned to political life last fall by being “the only guy on stage not bad mouthing the other candidates.”
Thompson complained to reporters that the media thirsts after “applause lines and attack lines. And you do one or two successfully, the media says, ‘Oh, god, that’s great. Do it again. Do it again.’ If you don’t do it [and act] little bit more presidential, they’re disappointed.”
Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond was more succinct when pressed about why Gingrich didn’t reprise his aggressive performance from last week.
“I don’t know,” he said.
Gingrich’s rivals were exultant – and glad to pour it on.
“He looked deflated to me,” crowed Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom. “He’s an erratic personality. He bounces around from pillar to post. I think over the last 24 hours he’s become more and more unhinged.”
“Newt’s campaign has lived and died by debates and the adoration of a casino billionaire,” said Nick Ryan, who heads a pro-Rick Santorum super PAC. “When Newt has an easy moderator as a foil, he can attack the media and win. When Newt has to defend his own record or ability to articulate a conservative message, he loses, even to Romney. Tonight both Santorum and Romney took Newt to task and he looked like the wounded and flawed candidate that Iowa voters saw. It makes one wonder if Juan Williams and John King had more effect on South Carolina voters than any ad or any campaign.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72068.html#ixzz1keVNYeT6